Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

A. J. Payne, S. Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, C. Agosta, P. Alexander, T. Albrecht, X. Asay-Davis, A. Barthel, T. J. Bracegirdle, R. Calov, C. Chambers, Y. Choi, R. Cullather, J. Cuzzone, C. Dumas, T. Edwards, D. Felikson, X. Fettweis, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, H. Goelzer, R. Gladstone, N. R. Golledge, J. M. Gregory, R. Greve, T. Hatterman, M. J. Hoffman, A. Humbert, P. Huybrechts, N. C. Jourdain, T. Kleiner, P. Kuipers Munneke, E. Larour, S. Le clec'h, V. Lee, G. Leguy, W. H. Lipscomb, C. M. Little, D. P. Lowry, M. Morlighem, I. Nias, F. Pattyn, T. Pelle, S. Price, A. Quiquet, R. Reese, M. Rückamp, N.-J. Schlegel, H. Seroussi, A. Shepherd, E. Simon, D. Slater, R. Smith, F. Straneo, S. Sun, L. Tarasov, L. D. Trusel, J. Van Breedam, R. van de Wal, M. van den Broeke, R. Winkelmann, C. Zhao, T. Zhang and T. Zwinger


Projections of sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared to the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and any mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Geophysical Research Letters (submitted).
Earth and Space Science Open Archive, doi: 10.1002/essoar.10505094.1 (2020).

Last modified: 2021-01-11